Politicians Don't Get It

Everytime the election is called, we get politicians showing up at all sorts of public events begging for your vote. As I write this, UVic (the University of Victoria) is in chaos: it's the first day of classes for the winter session: students are trying to get their photos; they're trying to get textbooks; they're looking for parking and some are trying to get to class. In amongst all of this chaos: Paul Martin, his entourage of siccophants, the throngs of media and one or two real voters looking on. He's here to make an announcement. The problem: he's so detached from reality that he didn't stop to question if this was the right time or place to hold his announcement.
Politicians don't understand that they aren't wanted. They represent government and government has grown out of control. Whenever I hear about taxes, I hear officials saying that they are only going to raise taxes a small amount. They don't understand: if the dollar amount of income rises and they take a constant percentage, they get more revenue. If the taxation percentage rises, they are squeezing us. This is a message to government: take advantage of our prosperity; don't prey on your inability to resist your choking grasp.

With the election 19 days away, here's my prediction for what we'll find on Jan. 23rd:

Liberals 115
Conservatives 96
Bloc Quebecois 76
NDP 17
Green Party 0
Independant 2

Total seats: 306

Paul Martin will stand up trimuphant and say that he has been taught a lesson by the voters and will promise to govern with a consensus. Steven Harper and Gille Duceppe will be delayed in their speeches. When they come out, they will announce that they will work together in a coalition government that represents both East and West. No? Where do you think the Bloc seats came from? Mulroney's first election was a landslide. By the late 1980s, the PCs had splittered: Progressive Conservatives became Bloc MPs in Quebec and Reform MPs in the West. The Reform party has re-congealed with the Conservatives. This election will see the Bloc following suit. The Bloc will not be absorbed: it will be a mirror of the national dynamic. Separate but together. The coalition will tear through the records and find out what the Liberals pulled in the 1990s. This will spark outrage in Quebec and a new referendum call in late 2006. This will put strain on the coalition in 2007. There will be an election in 2007, maybe 2008. With some Liberals out of the picture (some retired; some indicted), the new Liberals will be able to gain seats from the Conservatives and Bloc who, by then, will have scandals of their own. In 2008, North America will have swung Left with a centrist goverment in Canada (Liberals with a weak majority-- 162 seats +/-); and a Democrat in the White House.
Back to this election. There will be a great cry by the Liberals who got more seats. The NDP will be shut out and punished for their attempt to push the Liberals into an election. The Liberals will probably plead with Michaëlle Jean to not let the coalition come about. She will go with the large precendence of parlimentary history and give the coalition the nod.

The NDP will blame the Greens and Liberal fear mongering. In the end, the NDP will only have themselves to blame. They should have played to place and not to win. If the NDP had strategized to win seats instead of win the election, they could have gained enough seats from anti-Liberal voters in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and Maritimes; and outshone the Bloc. Instead, they are cruising for a repeat of 1993: people will vote for the anti-Liberals and the anti-Steven-Harpers and few of those votes will land in the NDP pockets. That, for me, is the shame. The NDP have the alternative voice to neo-con Paul Martin; ultra-right Steven Harper; and regional party leader Gilles Duceppe. The Ontario and BC provincial arms of the NDP have proven that the NDP in power is a dangerous situation. But, the NDP can be procactive and vigilant gadflies: everything you could want in the official opposition.

tags: tyeeelectioncentral

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