The Singularity
This is a cool think piece on the concept of "Singularity.":
The quote I like best:
Speed != better wiring is a good concept to remember. After all, there are 3.2 Ghz machines out people's desktops. In 1994 when PCs cracked 100 Mhz (0.1 Ghz), did people think that machines with 32x the speed would still jam up? Or, did they think they would be translating foreign languages in real time? We give money to Wintel for their faster machines. Why not wait for a better machine? Mac's move away from Motorola to Intel will only speed this rut. We are in the latter era of Moore's Law where new chips have to be very fast and are very costly to R&D. That means that AMD, Intel, Motorola and a small list of others have to be careful with what they release. If someone comes out with "self aware" architecture or architecture that could allow for a self-aware machine, they will have to justify it to the masses who only wanted the next version of Word.
That architectural jump has be made. When you want to do some hammering, you buy a hammer. When you want to build a pulley, sure you could build one using hammer in some way, but it isn't really going to work. To make a self aware machine, we have to abandon the x86 architecture, or relegate it to some backward task.
The thought I've had for an SF story is the idea of a "bloom." A chunklet of code that, when it's executed, it causing a cascade of von-Neumann style code writing to make the executing machine self-aware. The problem is the simplicity of neural nets/chaos in nature versus the complexity in computer science. If you throw a bunch of water onto a dirt field-- so much so that you get canals and rivulets of water-- the pattern of those courses has a determinism. Reproduce the experiment and you will find similar results in successive experiments. If you could throw that same easy ability to go left or right into a path of code execution, you could get this going on. The problem: it isn't that easy. Maybe it is just that easy.
Other stuff on The Singularity. The best part: an exchange that paints a TV reporter as retarded.
The quote I like best:
"It's hard to say precisely what "strong superhumanity" would be like, but the difference appears to be profound. Imagine running a dog mind at very high speed. Would a thousand years of doggy living add up to any human insight?"
Speed != better wiring is a good concept to remember. After all, there are 3.2 Ghz machines out people's desktops. In 1994 when PCs cracked 100 Mhz (0.1 Ghz), did people think that machines with 32x the speed would still jam up? Or, did they think they would be translating foreign languages in real time? We give money to Wintel for their faster machines. Why not wait for a better machine? Mac's move away from Motorola to Intel will only speed this rut. We are in the latter era of Moore's Law where new chips have to be very fast and are very costly to R&D. That means that AMD, Intel, Motorola and a small list of others have to be careful with what they release. If someone comes out with "self aware" architecture or architecture that could allow for a self-aware machine, they will have to justify it to the masses who only wanted the next version of Word.
That architectural jump has be made. When you want to do some hammering, you buy a hammer. When you want to build a pulley, sure you could build one using hammer in some way, but it isn't really going to work. To make a self aware machine, we have to abandon the x86 architecture, or relegate it to some backward task.
The thought I've had for an SF story is the idea of a "bloom." A chunklet of code that, when it's executed, it causing a cascade of von-Neumann style code writing to make the executing machine self-aware. The problem is the simplicity of neural nets/chaos in nature versus the complexity in computer science. If you throw a bunch of water onto a dirt field-- so much so that you get canals and rivulets of water-- the pattern of those courses has a determinism. Reproduce the experiment and you will find similar results in successive experiments. If you could throw that same easy ability to go left or right into a path of code execution, you could get this going on. The problem: it isn't that easy. Maybe it is just that easy.
Other stuff on The Singularity. The best part: an exchange that paints a TV reporter as retarded.
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